I woke up this morning at 5:30 and couldn’t sleep anymore, so I watched a show on Discovery Channel about the future. I always liked watching those shows and I always liked anticipating new technologies coming into our lives. What struck me about the show though was that it presented technology as the immediate solution to many very complex problems. Aging, hunger, transport, urbanization… all of these problems would be solved by just one or two inventions.

That’s not what the future is going to be like! There will be new technologies and they will solve problems, but there will also be social and political consequences beyond our understanding. There are some historical constants though. When iron was introduced, it led to war. When the printing press was introduced it led to war. When the cumbustion engine was introduced, it enabled new ways to wage war. Who says that genetics, nanotechnology and robotics will not lead to war again? Every new technology can be used for good or evil, which means if Murphy’s Law is applied they will be used for good and evil.

I miss that sense of perspective and reflection in these shows. The future doesn’t have to be pitch black, but we should be careful not to paint it too bright, so as not to be blinded and duped into believing nothing can go wrong. Something always does.

Update: The BBC tends to make pretty good television, so I should mention there is a great program called Visions of the Future(presented by Michio Kaku), that does go into the more advanced theories of the future. I just saw the first episode titled The Intelligence Revolution which features Marvin Minsky and Ray Kurzweil among others. I think it has a lot of detailed thought that other programs miss, so I would recommend it.